national security thesis

Useful for finding both NPS and non-NPS theses and dissertations 6. (See Box 5-1; a list of many of the variables examined may be found in Goldstone et al., 2010.) For example, composite indicators are sometimes created to summarize knowledge about various phenomena of interest, such as drought, susceptibility to damage from flooding, health status of a population, emergency coping capacity, or political instability. Decisions to protect a country against climate events can also create or accelerate crises; for example, a unilateral decision by Turkey regarding the management of headwaters for the Tigris–Euphrates system could immediately generate crisis conditions. The Intelligence System for the Security of the Republic launched the fourth 2019/20 edition of the "A Thesis for National Security" award. Monitoring for the purposes of the intelligence community has the same requirements, although information will be used differently because of the need to focus on threats outside the United States. Observations relevant to climate-security linkages may come from a great diversity of sources: scientific instruments such as space satellites or ground-based sensors, censuses or surveys conducted by governments or nongovernmental organizations, scanning of communications on mass media or the Internet, and on-site expert observation of qualitative aspects of social and political systems, among others. ... or thesis experience prior to graduation. As important as data and monitoring are for assessing the effects of potential climate events on national security concerns, data in the absence of effective analytical techniques to process them and produce useful information are of little help. For example, it is possible to develop a map of the western United States with fairly sharp spatial resolution that indicates the risk for forest fires and related events as a function of projected increases in average temperature (see Figure 3-2), but much less confidence can be. As a PhD student you’ll work with increased independence, under the direction of a supervisory panel of experts in the field. Climate science provides considerable expertise for identifying, monitoring, and estimating the likelihood of single disruptive physical events occurring in particular places. NS4080 is taken in one’s third quarter (or, for 12-month students, in one’s second quarter) as a pass/fail course. For example, U.S. agricultural price interventions, as in use of corn for fuel, can have a direct impact on food prices in fragile societies that can be amplified by climate events that reduce agricultural production. As the recent National Research Council (2012a) review of the USGCRP strategic plan noted, “An effective global change research enterprise requires an integrated observational system that connects observations of the physical environment with a wide variety of social and ecological observations. The recommendation for a whole-of-government approach is consistent with the recommendations of the Defense Science Board (2011) and the strong convergence of the climate change monitoring objectives of the intelligence community as discussed here and those of the USGCRP. Conclusion 6.2: Developing an adequate system for monitoring the conditions that can link climate events to national security concerns will require maintaining critical existing observational systems, programs, and databases; the collection of new data; the analysis of new and existing data; and the improvement of analytic systems, leading to a better understanding of the linkages over time and to improved indicators of key variables where quantitative indicators are appropriate and feasible to produce. This thesis on Homeland Security: Future Challenges was written and submitted by your fellow student. All methods should be used to gain insight. Only a few of them are organized to inform security analysis, however, and it is difficult to know how useful the others might be for that purpose. in . %PDF-1.3 It needs to consider different susceptibilities to different kinds of events as well as differences among populations separated by place or differentiated by class, race, ethnicity, religion, or other social cleavages. One of particular importance for this study, already discussed in Chapter 3, is dealing with rare events, which introduce a variety of subtle, although well studied, statistical problems. The goal of this research is to understand how national security projects impact the environmental pillar of sustainable development in shared protected areas. Integration will be necessary in part because different methods are necessary to gather different kinds of information. Decision science techniques should be employed to design the processes and interpret the input from different kinds of expertise and modes of analysis in order to make the best possible use of information. The needed monitoring will be a major undertaking over an extended period, which should avoid duplication of. The analysis in the previous chapters, developed from our conceptual framework which was informed by an analysis of available knowledge, indicates that from a natural security perspective the climate events of most concern are those that would create the equivalent of a perfect storm: a country or region of importance to U.S. national security that experiences an extreme climate-related event or the effects of a climate-related shock to a global system that meets a critical need, that has significant human and economic assets in harm’s way, where those assets are highly susceptible to harm, where local coping ability is static or decreasing, and where official response systems prove to be ineffective. The same can be said for social, economic, and political observations: Multiple monitoring programs exist, with diverse purposes, and only a few of these are organized to inform security analysis. The concept of a climate stress test provides a framework for integrating climate and social variables more systematically and consistently within national security analysis. You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Nevertheless, the benefits of open, international data development and sharing should be taken seriously as work on monitoring systems proceeds. As discussed further in Appendix E, a number of efforts are under way to use these variables to create a more limited set of indicators that could be more relevant to policy making. 1 (July): 133-153. Yellow indicates an insufficiency in one of those three factors. requirements for the degree of . Monitoring of these five types of phenomena would provide valuable input for national security analysis. Given the joint criteria of significant potential for climate change impacts and importance to U.S. national security, it is likely that no more than 12 to 15 countries will need to be monitored and subjected to periodic stress tests over the next decade, many of which are likely to be in critical, and often shared, watershed areas in South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The U.S. government would also benefit from data-gathering efforts in and by other countries. At present it has to be acknowledged that the capacity to acquire data in many cases exceeds the analytical capacity to translate the data into useful information that can improve understanding of trends in key countries or regions. The U.S. Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System Operations coordinates a multidisciplinary program to support the International Health Regulations (IHR).1 The goal is to link datasets and information into a predictive surveillance program that generates advisories and alerts on emerging infectious disease outbreaks (Witt et al., 2011). A stress test is an exercise to assess the likely effects on particular countries, populations, or systems of potentially disruptive climate events to which they have some likelihood of exposure in the coming decade. The effort of the climate science community. R50/70477/2013 A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTERS OF ARTS IN INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI JUNE 2014. i DECLARATION This dissertation is my original work … © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. Others, such as the risk of coastal flooding, may need much finer resolution, especially in areas of dense population. Some potentially useful indicators are already in use or in development in the U.S. intelligence community and elsewhere, and in many cases they are available in the open literature. Of the quantitative indicators, some are already well calibrated and validated, others much less so. More broadly, as the Political Instability Task Force forecasting tournament indicated, there is a need to identify the relative merits of the competing data analysis approaches currently prevalent: frequentist (relying on significance testing); Bayesian (using probability distributions); and machine learning (pattern recognition, broadly defined). MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2003 Author: Mieczyslaw Malec Approved by: Jeffrey Knopf Thesis Advisor Boris Keyser Second Reader James J. Wirtz Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs Normal techniques of intelligence analysis are also useful for assessing some of these components of vulnerability, such as the willingness of governments to respond on behalf of only particular segments of their populations in the event of need.

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